Pandemic the pin that perhaps bursts sports bubble

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 03/06/2020 (1421 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Steve Lyons: Hey there. How have you been? Last time we chatted like this, you had just returned from a winter vacation in Bonaire and there was some sort of scare on the plane you were one. Whatever happened to that whole virus thing? haha

You were always a pioneer in self-isolating, but how have you been keeping up there in Gimli during the pandemic?

Paul Wiecek: You know I’ve actually been feeling guilty about how little this pandemic has actually affected me personally.

I’ve always preferred the company of dogs to the company of people anyway, so all the isolation that has been so difficult for so many people hasn’t been an issue for me at all.

And with a home in a small town like Gimli and a very isolated cabin in Northwestern Ontario, all the big city problems — and risks — that the rest of you have had to contend with have been a non-issue for me. One time I stood in a lineup for about two minutes outside the Pharmasave in Gimli — that’s literally the only line I’ve stood in throughout this whole thing.

Suffice to say, I’m very grateful these days and very aware of just how lucky I’ve been. And that’s even more so because I’ve seen how hard this thing hits people. My daughter-in-law down in South Carolina contracted the virus in the very earliest days of this thing and two months later, she’s one of the unlucky ones you read about who cannot seem to shake it. Spiking fevers, a rash, terrible lethargy — every week we think it’s finally behind her it comes back. It’s been very worrying.

Steve: Sorry to hear about your daughter-in-law. I’ve read numerous stories about how the virus can have that effect — and not just on old people like you and I. Well, me anyways.

The lineup thing has been driving me nuts lately. I ranted about it to Mike McIntyre in our weekly Jetcetera podcast yesterday. They have all kinds of lines and notices on the floors of stores these day to help you know where to stand in line when you’re waiting to pay, but it seems no matter what store I’m in the person behind me in line needs to stand six inches in front of the line instead of behind it. Like, what’s up with that? I asked one 20-something couple to move back a bit behind the line one day in Superstore and the guy basically told me ’Take a pill (he used different language) old man.’ I get that people will forget and make mistakes, but when asked to move back it far too often seems to become a territorial confrontation. On another occasion, I was advised to stay home (again different language was used) if I was so worried about getting the virus. For a moment, I thought I was living in the USA. End rant lol

No shortage of specific sports stories to chat about today, but I’m curious to hear your take on how the pandemic has effected to the sports world in general.

Paul: Back when I was employed, I remember writing a column for you one day about how there was “a sports bubble” — not unlike a stock market bubble — that was doomed to burst.

The context of that column was how the fracturing effects of the internet were forcing TV networks to pay more and more for one of the only reasons people still had not to “cut the cord” — live sports. And those soaring rights deals were in turn driving skyrocketing franchise valuations, which in turn were driving balooning player salaries, which in turn were driving soaring ticket prices. And on and on.

It all seemed to me at the time to be utterly unsustainable and I figured that sooner or later the sports bubble was going to burst. Little did I know that the pin that was going to burst that bubble was a virus that has made the business of pro sports — at least for the foreseeable future — a money-losing proposition.

I wouldn’t pay 10 cents for a pro sports franchise right now.

Steve: I have recalled that column several times recently. The whole industry just seemed so over-inflated. It’s going to be very interesting to see what the new landscape looks like.

When I was out for lunch and a bike ride a couple of weeks ago, you asked me when I thought sports would be back to normal. I’ve had a few people ask me the same thing in recent days.

My answer to you at the time remains the same, with one caveat: I’m now not sure it will ever be the same.

But realistically, I can’t see it being anywhere near back to normal for four or five years.

It’s impossible to imagine mass gatherings of any sort — whether it be sports events, concerts, festivals — until a number of different things unfold: a) there needs to be a vaccine for the COVID-19 and that appears to be at least a year away in the best-case-scenerios; b) the general population would all need to be inoculated and I’ve read estimates that would take 12-18 months; c) the public would need to feel safe about returning to these events and while young folks might be all gung-ho to resume the party, most of the people who spend the cash to go to sporting events are of an older demographic; and d) will people be able to afford to attend these events with the way the global economy and personal finances have been hit.

On the other hand, maybe the virus will just up and disappear and all be well in the world again. Says that orange-haired man south of the border.

Paul: I’m always cautious in big moments like this when people start making pronouncements about how “this changes everything” and “nothing will ever be the same again.”

The last time we heard those kinds of big statements was on 9/11. And with the Twin Towers still smoking at the time, it sure seemed like maybe that was the moment that changed everything.

But two decades later, I’m not really sure much changed at all.

Sure, the Americans got themselves into a disastrous war in Iraq, but that was more about craven politicians — and Dick Cheney — then anything that happened on Sept. 11, 2001.

And yeah, airline travel is definitely more inconvenient today, but even that hasn’t really changed in any meaningful way.

In the long run, we live our lives today pretty much the same way we were living them on Sept. 10, 2001.

To me, the lessons from 9/11 are perhaps instructive here, although with a disclaimer: anyone who tells you they know how this Covid thing is going to unfold is either delusional or a liar or on Fox News or in the White House.

I think mass gatherings like pro sports events or concerts are done with in the short term for sure and maybe even, as you say, the medium term too. And I think the business model of pro sports has been busted into a million pieces and the billionaire owners and millionaire athletes are all in for a serious financial reckoning in the years to come.

But in the long run, I’m not sure this particular crisis is going to precipitate any more meaningful changes to the way we live day to day than 9/11 did.

What concerns me a lot more than Covid right now is what’s been happening in the United States lately. That’s been a dysfunctional country for quite sometime, but the speed with which things seem to now be spinning out of control down there is truly frightening.

If you told me even three months ago the U.S. military would be flying Blackhawk helicopters at tree level over Washington and cops would be breaking up peaceful protests and beating journalists, I’d have said you’re crazy. But it’s happening daily right now.

And what worries me most is where we go from here? Are you confident that the U.S. presidential election this fall will be open and fair? I’m sure not. And if Trump loses, do you think he will actually leave? Again, I’m not so sure anymore, which is just shocking to me.

If even those bedrock elements of American democracy are now in doubt, Covid is the least of the world’s problems.

Steve Lyons: Apparently, you still have Internet in your bunker — I imagine you’re keeping an eye on the various return-to-play scenarios the various sports leagues are proposing?

The NBA seems to have a solid plan in place with 22 teams going to the ESPN Wide World Of Sports complex at Disney World in Orlando. The NHL presented a decent package a couple of weeks ago, but I’d like to see some solid dates of when the various stages of the plan will get going. The NFL has been pledging an on-time start — Sept. 12 — but we don’t hear much about how that will happen and what will happen if it can’t get going by then. And then there’s MLB, which of course has the most contentious negotiations going on between owners and players. Because it’s the baseball way.

Any wager on who will be the first to play?

Paul Wiecek: I’m not sure any of those leagues are going to be able to pull off what they’re proposing. And that’s simply because there are way more unknowns than knowns right now.

To be honest, my eyes glaze over every time I see yet another story about the latest development in how this league or that league is going to return to play because it’s impossible to take any of it seriously. There are too many moving parts — and that was before major U.S. cities became armed camps, with nightly curfews and the National Guard patrolling the streets.

And here’s yet another moving part to consider: All these protests right now, with people packed shoulder to shoulder, are creating the perfect conditions for a second wave of Covid to take hold in major U.S. cities in the weeks to come that could be even worse than the first Wave that has killed over 100,000 Americans.

Who in their right mind would want to play in those conditions? Even if the owners could somehow create these ‘bubbles’ — there’s that word again — where the players could be insulated from the outside world and the games staged as made for TV events, I could see a lot of players saying, ‘Screw that. I’m staying home.’

It’s one thing for German soccer to pull off a return to play, as they have. The Germans have a grown up running their country and a responsible, intelligent citizenry all pulling together. That, suffice to say, is not even remotely the case in the U.S. where the leagues you’re talking about would be playing.

Too bad though. I’d love to watch some of that summer playoff hockey. It’d be a crapshoot — literally every team would have a viable shot at a Stanley Cup in these crazy circumstances.

Steve: Closer to home, the CFL is still hoping to have a shortened season starting in September, but that also seems very far-fetched. Playing without fans in the stands just doesn’t seems financially feasible for the CFL and I would suggest it would be far better off, making a decision sooner than later — actually that moment has passed — to cancel the 2020 season and try to limit the expenses it continues to incur with the idea that the season will be saved. I’m not sure why teams need to be paying hefty salaries to coaches who aren’t coaching, while at the same time asking the federal government for a handout.

Meantime, it doesn’t look like the Goldeyes are going to have a season with McIntyre reporting today that the league may go ahead and play a season but the Fish will likely be excluded due to current border restrictions that I don’t imagine will be lifted anytime soon. Will they?

On a very positive local note, the folks at Assiniboia Downs are to be commended to putting together a plan to have horse racing without fans in the stands and have been rewarded with record handles over the first couple of weeks of thoroughbred racing. The ASD peeps have always been creative and willing to try new things. The management out there — shout out to Darren Dunn and Sharon Gulyas — is stellar.

Paul: I couldn’t agree more about the Downs and their management. That track has survived everything that’s been thrown at it over the last 20 years — a huge fire; the previous government’s bizarre and illegal efforts to put them out of business; and now a worldwide pandemic. And still Dunn and company find new ways to keep the doors open.

It is complete folly that the CFL is pretending it’s still going to have a season and teams are continuing to pay salaries. Is it true Mike O’Shea makes 500 grand a year? If so, that’s a great take home for not coaching a football team this year.

It’s clear to everyone — other than commissioner Randy Ambrosie, I guess — that the only thing more unprofitable than the CFL with people in the stands is the CFL without fans at all.

If what Ambrosie told a Commons committee is true that the CFL lost about $20 million last year collectively, then it would seem the league could actually save a lot of money by simply not playing at all this year. But that would require the league to shutdown entirely (two months ago preferably); lay everyone off for a year; and go into survival mode and live on to fight another season.

But that would be the smart thing to do and the CFL — and this especially ridiculous commissioner — have never been known for the wisdom of their decision-making. Ambrosie’s grand plan to beg the government for an absurd $150 million handout missed the mark worse than a TJ Rubley pass and at this point, the league and it’s teams are simply bleeding money every day they don’t accept the reality that there will be no Canadian football this year.

So dumb.

Steve Lyons: After waiting nearly 30 years to be the reigning Grey Cup champs, the Bombers may get to hold on the trophy for an extra year.

Punters wagered $1.85 million on Wednesday evening to break the wagering record at Assiniboin Downs for the third time this year. It’s been awhile since I placed a bet, but I’ve been tempted a bit lately to tune in and lay a few bucks down.

I got that bike rack I was telling you about and we went out cycling to Beaudry Park last Saturday. Had never been there before — beautiful spot close to the city and some decent bike trails. How was your visit to Birds Hill with the new RV?

With the pandemic and travel restrictions, it doesn’t look like we will be able to travel anywhere outside Manitoba for a bit. Have you ever been to Clearwater Lake near The Pas? I’ve always been interested and am thinking I might venture up that way when I have a couple of weeks off at the start of July.

Paul Wiecek: That whole area around Flin Flon and The Pas is spectacular and yeah, Clearwater Lake lives up to its name. But Chocolate Lake — halfway between Flin Flon and The Pas —is my favorite spot up there: stocked full of master angler rainbow trout. I spent a very enjoyable afternoon in an RCMP boat years ago cleaning that lake out.

That trip to Birds Hill in the new trailer — while not exactly the cross continent, six-week journey I’d been envisioning for this summer — was alright. There’s great cycling in that park and we’re lucky to have it.

Years ago when I was the Freep cop reporter, there was a couple from Chicago whose son had gone missing in Winnipeg who I got to know. They came up a few times a year to search for him — it was a heartbreaking story — and they would camp at Birds Hill. They always went on about how they couldn’t believe we had such a pretty park so close to a major city.

Those big handles at the Downs make for great betting and big exotic pools. There’s money to be made.

Steve: That’s what we always thought lol.

I gotta get back to the real job pal. Take care and let’s do this again soon. Perhaps, we will have some games to chat about. Although, this has at times been way more interesting.

Paul: We are blessed — and cursed — to live in interesting times.

steve.lyons@freepress.mb.ca