Province hoping for average precipitation to avoid major flooding

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This article was published 26/02/2020 (1519 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Significant Red River Valley flooding — enough to temporarily close Highway 75 — could occur with average weather conditions between now and the end of the spring melt, the province says in its first spring thaw outlook of 2020.

Infrastructure Minister Ron Schuler said Thursday future snow and rain will determine the size of any potential flood.

“We are in good shape right now, if the weather holds up,” he said, referring to minimal recent precipitation.

Saturated soils throughout the Red River Valley and well-above average snowfalls south of the border have raised concern about significant flooding along the Red River.

However, to the west of Winnipeg, extending into Saskatchewan, the weather has fairly been dry, with relatively little snowpack.

“At this time, we expect the Assiniboine and other rivers to remain mostly within banks, with possible over-bank high water covering some farmland,” Schuler told a news conference.

With average weather conditions this spring, water levels are expected to be similar to 2011 on the Red River. In that year, Highway 75 was closed for 29 days.

With unfavourable weather in the weeks ahead, run-off could near 2009 levels. That year, Winnipeg’s main highway link to the United States was closed for 37 days.

In both years, there was extensive farmland flooding, but communities along the river were protected by ring dikes.

The U.S. National Weather Office also released a Red River flood report Thursday. It said there is a high risk (greater than 65 per cent) of major flooding along several points along the river, including Grand Forks and Pembina at the Manitoba border.

South of the border, the current snowpack is above normal, as is the water content of that snow, the weather office said in a release.

“At the time of freeze-up, soil moisture was extremely high and well above normal across much of the (Red River) basin due to record precipitation during the fall,” the U.S. report said. “Some fields and ditches even had standing water freeze in place.”

The province activated the Red River Floodway in fall for the first time in October, due to heavy precipitation from a large snowstorm. The measure was taken to control river levels within Winnipeg and prevent city basements from flooding. The floodway was used for 29 days between Oct. 9 and Nov. 7.

Last spring, Manitoba braced for a flood on the scale of the 2009 deluge, but ideal weather conditions produced a gradual melt and the spring runoff became a non-event.

Manitoba will release its next flood update at the end of March.

larry.kusch@freepress.mb.ca