Do ya feel lucky, Jets?
Team has 7.5 per cent probability of landing Auston Matthews in NHL draft lottery
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Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 28/04/2016 (2891 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.
Pages and airwaves across the country have been filled in recent days with every case and cause imaginable for today’s NHL draft lottery.
It goes everywhere from who’s worthy of a lottery win (just ask them in Vancouver and Calgary) to who’s not (the howling over the Edmonton Oilers, who have picked first in four of the last six drafts, could be near universal) to who needs it the most (love them or hate them, the Leafs were last season’s worst team).
The league’s new format will see three drawings take place, one for each of the top three places for the June 24-25 entry draft in Buffalo.
A system for a one-winner lottery had been used, in various forms, since 1995.
Tonight’s lottery will not make or break the Winnipeg Jets, the sixth-worst team from the 2015-16 regular season. If the Jets, though, should move up from their current No. 6 slot in the draft, it would certainly accelerate the remaking of the team that’s more determined than ever to do it via draft and develop.
The Jets have a 7.5 per cent chance of moving to the top of the first round of the draft, where the strong consensus seems to indicate centre Auston Matthews, who played professionally in Switzerland last season, will be the first pick.
The other two top-three players are Finns — left-winger Patrik Laine and right-winger Jesse Puljujarvi.
All 14 non-playoff teams have a shot at lottery success. The odds vary from Toronto’s 20 per cent at the first choice, to Boston’s one per cent.
After the drawing for the top pick, the remaining 13 teams will go into a new drawing for the second selection. The same thing will take place for the third selection for the 12 teams that are left.
The 2016 first-round draft order, then will be determined from there, with the teams with the fewest regular-season points lining up behind the lottery winners.
That leaves the Jets with seven possibilities out of the draft lottery.
Winnipeg’s chance to be in the top three is 23.5 per cent. The Jets could also stay at No. 6 (17.5 per cent), or drop to No. 7 (39.3 per cent), No. 8 (17.9 per cent) or No. 9 (1.7 per cent).
The Jets, who also hold the 20th pick of this year’s first round via their February trade with the Chicago Blackhawks, can fall no lower than ninth with their first choice. As well, they cannot be in the No. 4 or 5 slot after the lottery, given its format.
If the Jets aren’t successful in the lottery proceedings and their first selection is again outside the top five, where they’ve been for the previous six drafts, it shouldn’t be considered cause for panic.
In the five drafts since the 2011 relocation, the Jets have uncovered Mark Scheifele (seventh in 2011), Jacob Trouba (ninth in 2012), Josh Morrissey (13th in 2013), Nikolaj Ehlers (ninth in 2014) and Kyle Connor (17th in 2015). The franchise last picked in the top five in 2009, when it took Evander Kane fourth overall. Zach Bogosian was selected third overall in 2008.
The old Atlanta Thrashers had one successful lottery experience, winning the drawing in 2001 (and picking Ilya Kovalchuk) even though the New York Islanders were the league’s worst team that season. The Thrashers also had the reverse experience the year prior. They were the NHL’s poorest team but lost the lottery to the Islanders and had to pick second.
tim.campbell@freepress.mb.ca
History
Updated on Saturday, April 30, 2016 11:40 AM CDT: Corrects pick from Chicago is 20th.