Poll predicts low turnout — and that could be good news for Motkaluk

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 18/10/2018 (2008 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A new poll measuring voter intentions predicts a lower-than-usual turnout for Wednesday’s civic election, which could help Jenny Motkaluk in her long-shot quest to become mayor of Winnipeg.

A cross-Canada survey of voter intentions in eight different municipal elections has found Winnipeg voters are pretty apathetic to the outcome, and not even a ballot question on pedestrian traffic at Portage Avenue and Main Street is expected to get more people out to vote.

Aaron Moore, a political studies professor at the University of Winnipeg who is participating in the cross-country polling, said the survey findings still show incumbent Mayor Brian Bowman with a sizable lead over challenger Jenny Motkaluk, but Bowman’s team has to ensure his supporters cast their ballots.

!function(e,t,n,s){var i=”InfogramEmbeds”,o=e.getElementsByTagName(t)[0],d=/^http:/.test(e.location)?”http:”:”https:”;if(/^/{2}/.test(s)&&(s=d+s),window[i]&&window[i].initialized)window[i].process&&window[i].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var a=e.createElement(t);a.async=1,a.id=n,a.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(a,o)}}(document,”script”,”infogram-async”,”https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js”);

“If we actually see Motkaluk somehow pulling off a victory, it will be because of poor turnout by Bowman supporters,” Moore said. “I get the sense that the anti-Bowman crowd are pretty motivated, so that has to be a concern for him. But I still think that with the size of the gap between Bowman and Motkaluk, I still don’t think she’ll make that up, but it’ll probably be closer than people had been anticipating.”

This portion of the survey was conducted between Sept. 27 and Oct. 15 by Forum Research on behalf of the Canadian Municipal Election Study, which is looking at municipal elections in Winnipeg and seven other cities: Vancouver, Calgary, London, Ont., Mississauga, Ont., Toronto, Montreal and Quebec City.

!function(e,t,n,s){var i=”InfogramEmbeds”,o=e.getElementsByTagName(t)[0],d=/^http:/.test(e.location)?”http:”:”https:”;if(/^/{2}/.test(s)&&(s=d+s),window[i]&&window[i].initialized)window[i].process&&window[i].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var a=e.createElement(t);a.async=1,a.id=n,a.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(a,o)}}(document,”script”,”infogram-async”,”https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js”);

The polling so far in Winnipeg found:

• Incumbent Mayor Brian Bowman is more likeable than challenger Jenny Motkaluk.
• Respondents think Bowman has the best chance to win, with an average score of 73.4, compared to a score of 34 for Motkaluk.
• The most important issue in the campaign is crime and community safety, followed by economic development. Re-opening Portage and Main was sixth on people’s priority list.

Moore said the survey isn’t the typical “snapshot” done by most polling firms during an election, with intense polling over a limited number of days. The project involves getting people’s opinions on a variety of issues over a much longer period of time.

Moore said about 1,000 Winnipeggers have been surveyed to date, and more than 2,000 will have participated when it’s over on election day. In addition, most questions focused solely on the two front-runners.

Because of how the polling is conducted, Moore said the project team opted not to release data which suggests a winner, but he did say their data is showing a similar gap between Bowman and Motkaluk to that reported by Probe Research in the two polls it has released.

“While we want to share our findings with the public, our survey is not equivalent to the horse-race polls that firms like Probe conduct, so we are not comfortable making predictions about outcome,” he said.

!function(e,t,n,s){var i=”InfogramEmbeds”,o=e.getElementsByTagName(t)[0],d=/^http:/.test(e.location)?”http:”:”https:”;if(/^/{2}/.test(s)&&(s=d+s),window[i]&&window[i].initialized)window[i].process&&window[i].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var a=e.createElement(t);a.async=1,a.id=n,a.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(a,o)}}(document,”script”,”infogram-async”,”https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js”);

Moore said the data revealed many factors which suggest a lower turnout: people don’t feel it’s their duty to vote in civic elections; they believe Bowman will win; there’s nothing motivating them to get out and vote.

The 2014 election recorded a turnout of 50.23 per cent. While city hall reported Friday a record turnout in the advance polls, Moore said he doesn’t believe that will be an indicator on voting overall.

“It just means more people are choosing to vote ahead of election day, not that more people will vote,” he said, adding he believes the turnout will be less than what it was four years ago.

“The less competitive the election is seen, the less people vote,” which suggests voter turnout will be lower because “people think Bowman has this in the bag already.”

Low turnout in an election usually benefits the incumbent, but Moore cautioned Bowman and his supporters not to be overconfident.

“There’s a risk for Bowman’s campaign that a lot of people who support him or who just assume he’s going to win, fewer of them might come out to vote,” Moore said. “Whereas, Motkaluk supporters might be a lot more keen on going out to support her to ensure she wins.

"Theoretically, she could get a boost of a turnout because her supporters are more motivated.”

Moore said many people might find the survey question on whether people thought voting in an election is a duty or choice quite boring, but he said it’s revealing.

“The more people who view voting as a ‘choice,’ the lower the turnout you get. Coupled with the lower interest in municipal politics, and the fact respondents don’t see this as a competitive election, it means that we’re probably going to get a lower turnout.”

Moore said the ballot question on reopening Portage and Main isn’t generating much excitement among voters: it’s low on voters’ priority list and people are less interested in voting on the question than they are on voting for a politician, which is generally lower for civic elections than either federal or provincial.

“If you’re expecting the ballot question to drive voters to the polls, I’m not sure that’s actually going to happen."

aldo.santin@freepress.mb.ca