U.S. consulate rep tells Manitobans not to ‘freak out’

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This article was published 19/01/2017 (2642 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

On the morning of the Donald Trump presidential inauguration, the U.S. government’s representative in Manitoba had calming words for the province’s business community.

Christopher Gunning, principal officer of the U.S. Consulate in Winnipeg, said it is business as usual regardless of the feeling of instability that may exist with the arrival of an administration seemingly unlike others in Washington.

“I know that is not a sexy message, and it’s probably not what you want to hear, but that is the reality,” Gunning said to a breakfast crowd of Manitoba business leaders Friday morning. “I can come up with a huge number of stats, but it all boils down to the fact that these two economies are too closely integrated for us to freak out. Freaking out is the last thing we want to be doing.”

Gunning said there was plenty of hand-wringing at the time of the George W. Bush and Barack Obama inaugurations in 2000 and 2008, respectively, but likely most don’t remember those occasions now.

He emphasized the Trump administration will be business-focused. He noted Manitoba also has a business-oriented government with Brian Pallister’s Conservatives and Manitoba businesses would be wise to “strike while the iron is hot” in terms of developing its business connections with the U.S.

Noting his government’s goal to grow the Manitoba economy, Growth, Enterprise and Trade Minister Cliff Cullen said he strongly believes there will be opportunities for local business.

“I think the first thing to recognize is that Manitoba is a trading province, our economy relies on trade,” Cullen said. “The U.S. is our biggest partner both on import and exports. The new government (in the U.S.) looks to be focused on business, and we, as the government of Manitoba, are focused on business.”

So despite an arguably more widespread sense of unease with this new administration, Cullen said there is no reason not to be optimistic.

“When there is change there is always a certain degree of uncertainty, no matter what country you are in,” Cullen said. “But we have an ongoing relationship with the U.S. I do not see that relationship changing.”

Trade patterns back and forth between Manitoba and the U.S. have remained stable for the past five years, with total two-way trade volumes rising from $20.2 billion in 2011 to $25.8 billion in 2015. Manitoba imports more than it exports to the U.S., and that trade imbalance has remained between $6 billion and $7.9 billion over that span.

While there was plenty of rhetoric during the Trump campaign about NAFTA — Trump said “NAFTA is the worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere, but certainly ever signed in this country” — business leaders believe the trade deal works for both countries and, even if it is reviewed, it wont be revoked.

Chuck Davidson, president of the Manitoba Chambers of Commerce, said if there is an overhaul of NAFTA, there may be opportunities to strengthen it and fix inadequacies.

“These long-term trade agreements are just as strong with the U.S. as they are with Canada,” he said. “In terms of the relationship between Canada and the U.S., there is work to be done on the federal and provincial levels to make sure those relationships remain strong and that it will be business as usual. That will be critical.”

But Davidson is not concerned about any significant step up in trade barriers that would impact Manitoba’s manufacturers and agricultural companies or other exporters.

“Who is their main trade partner? That’s us,” Davidson said. “Are they willing to jeopardize that because of presidential rhetoric, or are they going want to continue on with business as usual?”

Gunning, who is married to a Manitoba woman and whose children were born here, said the nimbleness of the Manitoba business community will be well-suited to capitalize on opportunities. “First and foremost, we need to relax,” he said. “There will be rough patches, there will be choppy points, but don’t forget the relationship between Canada and the U.S. is not only fundamental, it is transcendental in terms of how the two economies function… There is no country, no business community that is better positioned to work with the new administration than Manitoba and Canada.”

martin.cash@freepress.mb.ca