Sowing the seeds of a great harvest

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 05/08/2020 (1358 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

If the eyeball test means anything, the Prairie farmers could be in for a bumper crop.

That’s what a late July crop tour suggested to market analysts and advisers at FarmLink, a Prairie-wide agricultural marketing organization who fanned out across Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta counting fields and observing the state of the crops, albeit many weeks before harvest.

Neil Townsend, FarmLink’s chief market analyst, said that in the majority of regions they saw better crops than last year.

“We were expecting to see a big crop and that’s what we saw,” he said.

While much of the extraordinary difference they observed this year compared to last year was in Alberta, which is emerging from a couple of years of drought, wheat fields across the Prairies are looking very good.

“We should start to prepare for the eventuality of a somewhat unprecedented wheat crop,” he said. FarmLink is predicting the best wheat yields will come from Manitoba.

He said that will mean “all hands on deck” from the rail carriers to the international marketers and shippers.

Danielle Rands, FarmLink’s grain marketing adviser in Western Manitoba, said that in general, Manitoba crops look fairly comparable to last year. And while she said there are still areas where you turn 360 and see nothing but canola in many areas, there is more variability.

For instance, she said there are peas being grown in areas that have never grown peas “and there are some outrageous yields out there.”

She attributes at least some of that to the recent construction of two pea processing facilities in Portage la Prairie and Winnipeg.

“There are more processors to take the peas and producers have reacted,” she said.

The FarmLink analysts acknowledged there are certainly some regions harder hit by excessive moisture and drought and that many crops will need more rain to finish them off, but overall Townsend said, “There is a high probability that a big harvest is coming.”

But according to Bill Campbell, the president of Keystone Agricultural Producers, that sort of optimism is not something he can take to the bank.

Campbell, who farms south of Brandon, an area that was hit by a heavy rainstorm in early July, said farmers were quite a bit more reserved during a KAP meeting last week that included producers from most regions of the province.

“Most of them think there is a decent-looking crop out there,” he said. “I have been looking at my own fields and we are certainly nowhere near where we were last year.”

Campbell said he understands that predictions are based on observations and data but there are so many unpredictable weather events that can have a dramatic impact on the final production numbers.

“I have always said it’s better to have your expectations low and be surprised as opposed to expecting bumper crops and find out it’s not there,” he said.

For instance, he pointed out there will be a mini heat wave this weekend in Manitoba, and there are rumours of disease problems for the wheat crop that won’t be fully known until the fields are combined.

“I would suggest there are some areas in the province that have run out of water… and how many acres has the excessive moisture taken out of production? You will have acres that won’t have any yield whatsoever. Not just diminished… they will be zero.”

But even if Campbell and other Manitoba farmers are expecting just average crops — as opposed to the Prairie-wide bin-buster Townsend is looking forward to — Campbell did say that if harvest is able to come off without a hitch, that would already be a big advantage over last year.

Despite his rosy predictions, Townsend was clear that there will be challenges ahead. For instance, no one is quite sure how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect harvesting activity.

As well, geopolitical tensions — Canada still does not have unfettered access to markets in China and Saudi Arabia — and macro-economic problems around the world will have an effect on the global grain markets.

But he said, “With heightened food security concerns around the world there should be demand for much of what we produce.”

His advice to farmers: lock in profits early to reduce the exposure in what looks to be a turbulent marketing year.

martin.cash@freepress.mb.ca