Odds favour stars & stripes

Opinion

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This article was published 03/07/2015 (3219 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Japan-United States rivalry might not be the most rancorous in women’s soccer, but it is surely the most meaningful.

In lieu of the histrionics of England-France, the regional ferocity of Japan-South Korea and the enmity, bordering on hate, of Canada-U.S., this engagement is one that, through the subtlest of margins, has settled the championships of the last two major competitions.

It will do so a third time in Sunday’s World Cup final in Vancouver.

Japan, the holders, required the late heroics of Aya Miyama and Homare Sawa to undo the work of American forwards Alex Morgan and Abby Wambach before winning the 2011 tournament on penalties.

But 13 months later the United States returned the favour — Carli Lloyd scoring twice to seal a 2-1 win over the Japanese and top spot on the podium at the 2012 Olympic Games.

Now we get a sort of tiebreaker, with the prize either a second successive title for Japan or the United States’ first World Cup triumph since 1999. And once again there is little to choose between them.

Neither side has trailed at this competition; both have scored nine goals. Japan are certainly the better possession team, but the United States boast the superior defensive record.

Clearly, further itemization is needed to separate these finalists.

Goalkeeping: Ayumi Kaihori’s howler against the Netherlands was cringeworthy; Hope Solo, meanwhile, hasn’t conceded since the first half of her first match. Advantage United States.

Defence: Japan has been breached twice in the World Cup knockout stages. Kaihori’s blunder allowed the Dutch some late hope in the quarter-finals; Yuki Ogimi’s foul on Steph Houghton sent Fara Williams to the penalty spot in the semis. But United States centre-back Julie Johnston is a Golden Ball finalist and has formed one half of a near-impenetrable defensive duo alongside Becky Sauerbrunn. Advantage United States.

Midfield: Japan moves the ball with rhythm, precision and purpose. One of Mizuho Sakaguchi and Rumi Utsugi is typically involved in a possession triangle, and right-back Saori Ariyoshi — another Golden Ball finalist — provides an additional outlet when moving forward. Morgan Brian and Lauren Holiday ran the midfield against Germany in the semi-finals but will be hard-pressed to repeat the feat on Sunday. Advantage Japan.

Attack: Aya Miyama — a Golden Ball front-runner — is the only Japanese player with more than a single goal at this World Cup. Striker Shinobu Ohno hasn’t scored at all. United States forward Alex Morgan is rounding into form after returning from a knee injury and Carli Lloyd’s deployment further upfield gives the Americans a weapon they didn’t have in the group stage. Advantage United States.

Bench: Japan have yet to use all three substitutions in a knockout match, but 22-year-old forward Mana Iwabuchi has come off the bench in all three of them. Homare Sawa — the 2011 FIFA Player of the Year — has been used sparingly since starting against Ecuador in Winnipeg, and at 36 is a shadow of the midfield supremo who dominated in Germany. The American bench features Kelley O’Hara, who scored against Germany, as well as potential difference-makers Sydney Leroux, Christen Press and Wambach, the all-time leading goal scorer. Advantage United States.

Coach: Norio Sasaki graduated much of his current team into Japan’s senior squad during his time with the U-20s and has managed the Nadeshiko for seven years, during which time he has won a World Cup, an Olympic Silver Medal and an AFC Asian Cup. He is more familiar with his side than any manager in women’s soccer. Jill Ellis was twice the United States’ interim boss before being formally appointed in May 2014. Over the past few weeks she has dispensed with Wambach up top while establishing an identity of defensive competence. Advantage Japan.

Game-breaker: Miyama will work the left-hand channels for Japan and operate predominantly opposite United States right-back Ali Krieger. Lloyd seems to play her best soccer in big matches and is thriving in a more advanced role. At this point she’s the odds-on Golden Ball favourite. Advantage United States.

Prediction: Japan will look to play a game of keep-away at BC Place, and their chances of repeating will rest almost exclusively on their ability to do so. Needless to say, this will not be a high-scoring contest. The Americans, for their part, have been getting better with each outing and will likely continue that trend through Sunday. This is their final to lose.

 

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