Manitobans — especially in Winnipeg — still crushing on new premier, government: poll

Premier Wab Kinew and his NDP government are still on their honeymoon with Manitoba voters almost six months after the fall provincial election.

A Free Press-Probe Research poll found the NDP has the support of 49 per cent of Manitobans, up from the 45 per cent it received Oct. 3, and just down slightly from 51 per cent in December.

The romance is even stronger in Winnipeg, where the NDP enjoys 56 per cent support; the Opposition Progressive Conservatives are at 29 per cent.

The poll revealed across the province, the PCs — the party received 42 per cent overall support in the 2023 election — who were at 38 per cent last December, dropped slightly to 37 per cent.

The Liberals — leader Dougald Lamont resigned after the party garnered only 11 per cent support in the election — is up slightly, to eight per cent from the seven per cent it tallied in December.

The NDP declined to comment on the results of the poll.

“The only poll that matters to us is on election day,” Amy Tuckett-McGimpsey, director of cabinet communications, said Monday.

That day is not until Oct. 5, 2027.

Interim PC leader Wayne Ewasko said the numbers show where his party is at and what lies ahead.

“What it tells me is we still have strong support within the base and rural,” Ewasko said.

“It also shows we still have work to do. We have to rebuild and regain our trust with Manitobans.”

Ewasko said he believes that is already happening with the Tories strongly criticizing the government in recent weeks. He said this will continue next week when the budget is released.

“We saw $3-billion in promises during the election,” he said. “We saw some copycat stuff going on as far as trying to take credit for a lot of the tax incentives and things that we were doing. We saw them drop the ball on bail reform. We’re seeing crime going up, we saw the delay in surgeries. We’re waiting on that budget, and they’re going to have to account for those $3 billion worth of promises.”

“I think if the poll was taken today it would be different now than then,” Ewasko said. “I think the honeymoon period is already coming to an end and we’re seeing the real NDP.”

University of Manitoba adjunct political studies professor Christopher Adams agreed the poll numbers do show Manitobans are still enamoured with the NDP. He noted even a recent Angus Reid poll showed Kinew was still the most popular premier in the country.

“People are wondering if this honeymoon will last; well, it is still pre-budget,” Adams said.

“Under (NDP premier Gary) Doer, Winnipeg was called Fortress Winnipeg and it looks like Winnipeg is overwhelmingly in support of Wab Kinew, just it was on election day.”

Adams said a closer look at some of the numbers shows some interesting highlights.

“It is quite startling when you look at men versus women, to see the NDP has the support of 60 per cent of women and only 26 per cent of women would support the PCs,” he said.

“Forty-nine per cent of men are for the PCs… and younger people (18-34 years of age) at 60 per cent are more strongly supportive of the NDP than older people (55 and over at 44 per cent).”

Scott MacKay, Probe’s president and founder, said there are other numbers that show the current strength of Kinew and the NDP.

“The undecided number hasn’t gone up,” he said noting it was at 13 per cent of Manitobans. “People seem to have gone into these camps and are supporting Kinew.

“This poll is more a historical record poll. At some point you look back and say, ‘Remember the honeymoon and how long it lasted?’ Doer’s honeymoon really lasted from 1999 through to 2003. These can sometimes last for a long time.”

The poll was conducted by interviewing a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults between March 5 and 18. It is considered accurate plus or minus 3.1 per cent 95 times out of 100.

kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca