Dry conditions could lead to wildfires: Manitoba

Widespread dry conditions across Manitoba are cause for concern and celebration: the danger of wildfires has jumped, but the risk of flooding is pegged at low to moderate.

The Manitoba Wildfire Service has advised that in addition to raising the risk of wildfire, there’s concern grass fires will pop up as the snow melts.

“Some municipal fire departments this past week were busy with grass fires,” said Earl Simmons, the acting wildfire director, on Tuesday.

“Our numbers were down last year, we did OK, but this year even Manitoba Hydro is concerned about the (low) reservoir levels.”

Simmons said the province’s fleet of seven water bombers has been serviced and is ready to go as soon as lake ice melts.

“We’re gearing up; we want to be prepared,” he said. “We’re also hoping for some nice spring rains.”

Simmons said they need Manitobans to do their part.

“Most fires are human-caused in the spring,” he said. “We especially need people to be careful out there.”

Currently, there are no burn or travel restrictions, but Manitobans are being warned to stay away from wildfire areas and look out for trail and road closures.

Natalie Hasell, a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, said Manitoba had below-average precipitation in the winter.

This month, for example, there’s been only 8.6 mm of precipitation. The average amount of precipitation in March is 24.5 mm.

There was only 6.5 mm in February, instead of an average of 13.8 mm. In January, precipitation measured 7 mm instead of 19.9 mm.

“Because of snow on Dec. 24, we had a white Christmas, but it was just enough to be a white Christmas,” Hasell said.

“It has been very dry this winter and things have had a chance to dry out already. These really dry conditions are fairly widespread across southern Manitoba and central.

“For agriculture, it could be a difficult year if things don’t shift.”

She noted that Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada put out its monthly drought monitor map on Feb. 29, which shows almost all of Manitoba is considered abnormally dry. The area near Killarney is considered under “extreme drought.”

Hasell said other precipitation maps show areas around Swan River and The Pas are some of the driest areas of the province.

Jason Small, a spokesman for the Canadian Red Cross, said its staff is “always prepared to support people impacted by emergencies, including wildfires.”

It has an agreement with the federal government’s Indigenous Services Canada: “Our team is ready to support First Nation communities in Manitoba that may need to evacuate due to wildfires and other emergencies.”

On the flip side, the dry conditions have resulted in Manitoba’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre issuing a low-to-moderate risk of significant spring flooding.

The risk is so low that the province says it doesn’t expect to use the Red River Floodway to protect Winnipeg. The Portage Diversion will only have “minimal operation,” and the Shellmouth Reservoir is being operated both to reduce the risk of flooding on the Assiniboine River and provide “sufficient storage for water supply and recreation.”

Jay Doering, a flood expert at the University of Manitoba, said since the floodway came into operation 55 years ago, it has been used in spring 36 times.

“The last time we didn’t use the floodway was 2020 — and that was a very dry year, too,” Doering said.

Doering cautioned that the situation can change quickly.

“We were looking good in 1997,” he said, recalling the “flood of the century” when the military was summoned to combat widespread devastation in southern Manitoba. “We had a lot of melting going on and all it took was one massive Colorado low.

After that flood, considered a one-in-100-year event, protection measures such as community dikes were built to withstand that level, plus two feet.

“But now, that’s a flood which could be readily handled now… It would be more of an inconvenience with the roads being submerged.”

kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca