Nearly two-thirds of Manitobans in survey believe crime increased in community since 2020

A majority of Manitobans believe crime has increased in the last four years, although most were not a victim of one over the same period, a new poll suggests.

Almost two-thirds of those polled by Research Co. think crime is happening more often in their community, while 18 per cent said they were a victim of an incident that required police involvement.

“That is where the numbers tend to be very different,” Mario Canseco, president of Vancouver-based Research Co., said of the gap between perception and reality.

A similar survey in 2020 found 54 per cent of respondents believed crime had risen in the previous three years, and 31 per cent had been a victim of a crime.

The latest online poll of 600 adults in Manitoba was conducted March 29-31. It had a margin of error of four percentage points, 19 times out of 20, said Research Co.

Canseco said Manitoba’s proportion of respondents who believe crime is on the rise was higher than those of five other provinces included in the survey. B.C. (54 per cent) was second. Saskatchewan (42 per cent) ranked fifth.

In each province, fewer than one in four respondents had been a victim of a crime since 2020.

About 54 per cent of Manitoba respondents fear becoming a victim “a great deal” or “a fair amount,” the poll found.

A total of 57 per cent said they feel “very safe” or “moderately safe” walking alone in their neighbourhood after dark.

“Research consistently shows that members of the public tend to overestimate the proportion of violent crimes committed in Canada,” University of Winnipeg Prof. Kelly Gorkoff, a criminologist, wrote in an email to the Free Press.

“This overestimation may stem from the sources from which they learn about crime.”

Sources include news reports, social media and and documentaries that tend to focus on certain aspects of crime, especially victimization, she said.

“Few people indicate that their understanding of crime comes from statistical information,” Gorkoff wrote. “In Manitoba, we have seen increases, statistically, in crime. Overall, however, Manitoba is a safe place to live and work.”

In a statement, the Association of Manitoba Municipalities said the poll’s findings align with what its members have been saying.

“Public safety and rising crime is a top priority,” said the AMM, which has lobbied for bail reform measures, increased funding for policing and more support for municipal community safety and well-being plans.

A recent survey for the Winnipeg Police Board found three-quarters of residents believe crime has increased in the city, although 42 per cent think it has jumped specifically in their neighbourhood.

The most recent annual report from the Winnipeg Police Service showed reported incidents of violent crime in 2022 were 24 per cent higher than the five-year average, and reports of property crime were up by 20 per cent.

Gorkoff and Brandon University sociology professor Christopher Schneider said politicians have used fear of crime to court votes or increase funding for the criminal justice system while reducing funding to services that are known to prevent crime.

Gorkoff cited Manitoba’s former Progressive Conservative government.

“I’d say that Conservative legacy is what is responsible for this difference in perception of crime,” she wrote. “But Manitobans also voted out that rhetoric and will, hopefully, adopt an orientation to crime prevention that will help Manitobans reduce their fear of crime.”

Research Co. said 56 per cent of respondents believe addiction or mental-health issues were factors in crimes in their community, ranking ahead of gangs and drugs (44 per cent), an “inadequate” court system (35 per cent) and poverty and inequality (34 per cent).

Schneider said efforts to address contributing factors to crime require a lot of time and money, but are trumped by a “wash, rinse, repeat” cycle of changes in government.

“New governments come in and say they are tough on crime,” he said.

Last week, NDP Premier Wab Kinew vowed to be tough on crime and its root causes.

Schneider said all seized proceeds of crime should be invested in areas such as mental-health or addictions services or affordable housing, rather than law enforcement.

“That actually might help to reduce crime,” he said.

chris.kitching@freepress.mb.ca